Jaehyun Cho (M.A. student, first author) and Professor Jinhyun Jung (corresponding author) from the School of Economics at Chung-Ang University conducted a study analyzing what types of information pitchers and catchers rely on when evaluating a batter’s offensive ability, using data from Major League Baseball (MLB). The study empirically demonstrates that in-game strategic decisions can be shaped by cognitive heuristics.
While previous studies have primarily focused on how teams and front offices utilize advanced sabermetric statistics to evaluate players and develop strategies, this study shifts the focus to how players actually use such information in real game situations. In particular, despite the likelihood that time pressure and cognitive constraints during games lead players to rely on simpler, more intuitive decision-making processes, empirical evidence on this issue has been limited.
To address this gap, the research team analyzed MLB pitch-by-pitch data from 2002 to 2024 to examine how a batter’s seasonal performance affects the likelihood of pitches being thrown outside the strike zone (Zone Out %). The results show that traditional batting statistics—such as home runs, RBIs, and slugging percentage—have a greater influence on pitch location decisions than advanced metrics such as WAR, wRC+, and Batting Runs. Among these variables, home runs were found to have the strongest impact.
These findings suggest that players tend to rely more on cognitively accessible and memorable information when making in-game decisions, consistent with the availability heuristic and representativeness heuristic. This indicates that even in data-rich environments, intuitive judgments based on easily recalled information continue to play a significant role in shaping strategic behavior on the field.
This study provides empirical evidence that decision-making in sports operates under bounded rationality and is recognized as an important extension of behavioral economics theory to real-world strategic contexts. It also highlights a potential gap between data-driven strategies developed by teams and the actual decision-making processes of players, underscoring the importance of how analytical insights are communicated and how players are trained to use them.
The study was published in 2026 in Psychology of Sport & Exercise (Impact Factor 3.3, Q1), a leading international journal in the field of sports science.